Weekly Update #21 - Week Ending 06/28/26
$TPC, $MDP.TO, $MEI & Others
Highlights
TPC (Refinancing): Refinanced $400M of 11.875% notes into 6.625% notes due 2033. The full-year savings land in 2027, reinforcing management’s call for adjusted EPS well above the top of 2026 guidance.
MDP.TO (Quarterly Results): Q4 results were unexciting, but GRAFAPEX guided to $30–32M. We think the stock will have a strong inflection to profitability.
MEI (Quarterly Results): Stock popped on data-center commentary. The market is starting to take note of their “hidden” DC business.
The following will cover stocks that are either in our microcap quality indices (MSMqi) or in our research journal (stocks that don’t quite qualify for the MSMqi but might be close).
Studs (Positive News)
1) TPC | Civil and Building Construction Contractor
Capital Markets (Refinancing)
TPC priced $400M of 6.625% senior notes due 2033 to redeem $400M of its 11.875% senior notes due 2029, terming out its most expensive debt and pushing the maturity wall out four years.
To be clear, this isn’t free upside for 2026; management had already baked about half a year of these savings into its 2026 guidance. The bigger payoff lands in 2027, when the full-year benefit shows up against a number management hasn’t formally guided yet. It reinforces what they’ve already told the market:
“Adjusted EPS for 2027 will be significantly higher than the upper end of the Company’s 2026 guidance due to solid earnings visibility provided by current backlog.”
We still believe the stock has meaningful upside, and as mentioned in Weekly Update #19, TPC might announce a strategy to further explore opportunities in the Data Center Market, which could quickly re-rate the stock, just as it happened with Bird Construction.
Note: Stock is in our Microcap Quality Index
2) MDP.TO / MEDXF | Specialty Pharmaceutical Developer
Quarterly Results
Medexus posted Q4 net revenue of US$24.65M vs US$24.75M, essentially flat YoY, and EPS of $(0.08) vs $(0.02) in the prior year.
To be honest, at first glance, the numbers are not impressive because they reflect a decline in the legacy portfolio, but hide a strong increase in GRAFAPEX revenue.
There are three main takeaways we can get from this release:
Stabilization in Legacy Portfolio: One of the main risks we highlighted in the Cliff Note was a decline in the legacy portfolio, but now management’s commentary suggests it has stabilized.
Strong GRAFAPEX Guidance: GRAFAPEX is the Medexus thesis and management guided to US$30–32M in revenue, above FY2026’s US$11.6M.
Pivot Into Profitability: If management executes, the company will have a huge swing in profitability and will be very cheap. Check out the model below to see what this means for the company’s valuation: